russia: Five reasons why Russia is bogged down in Ukraine

A month into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the conflict on the ground appears to have reached stalemate. Few would have thought Russia’s so-called “special military operation” would last this long. After all, Russia has overwhelming military superiority over Ukraine in terms of active troops – 9 lakh to 2. 1 lakh – and lethal arsenal.
Why then have Russian troops failed to overrun any of Ukraine’s largest cities, notwithstanding the ongoing siege of Mariupol? Here’s a look at five mistakes or miscalculations that Russian President Vladimir Putin made in ordering the military invasion of Ukraine.
Mirage Of Quick Victory
Russia began its campaign by largely targeting Ukrainian military sites but has of late been bombing civilian areas inside Ukrainian cities. This indicates the campaign hasn’t gone to plan. While Moscow lined up 1. 5 lakh to 1. 9 lakh troops for the Ukraine operation, the posture and composition of the force pointed to a short-duration campaign. That’s why the capture of a large number of Russian conscripts by Ukrainian forces has surprised military experts. Conscripts aren’t well-trained and certainly not equipped for long-drawn military action. Also baffling are videos of Russian mechanised units stuck in mud pits formed by thawing snow. This again points to a lack of preparedness for a long campaign factoring in theatre conditions. Hence, there is reason to believe Putin was expecting little resistance and banking on the Ukrainian military melting away.

Nato Support For Ukraine
The main reason Ukrainian forces have held on is the solid support from the US and the EU. Russia should have anticipated this, but it probably underestimated Nato unity. It’s possible the US exit from Afghanistan last year and Europe’s dependence on Russian energy contributed to Moscow’s miscalculation. Putin may have been counting on there being no appetite in the US for a fresh foreign intervention. Plus, given how fraught relations had become between the US and its Nato al-
lies under former President Donald Trump, Moscow may have believed the West to be a divided camp incapable of mounting a meaningful joint stance on Ukraine.
Putin may have assumed US President Joe Biden to be a risk-averse, status-quoist leader. But Biden has managed to rally much of the American establishment and society behind his punitive economic and diplomatic actions against Russia, and reunified Nato to an extent not seen in the last five years.
International Backlash
Putin may not have expected the kind of international response he is currently facing. Kicking out major Russian banks from the international SWIFT payment system was always on the cards. But the freezing of Russian foreign reserves, widespread Western targeting of Russian oligarchs and the mass exodus of multinationals have come as a huge blow for the Russian economy. More than 400 corporations, including energy majors BP, Exxon and Shell, have left or drastically scaled back their operations.
Additionally, countries like Germany – which are heavily dependent on Russian energy and were initially cautious about criticising Russia – are now changing their stance. This shows their governments are under pressure from their own citizens to act. In that sense, the Ukrainian resistance movement is galvanising public opinion across the world.
Wrong Narrative
In the run-up to the invasion, the Russian leadership tried to portray the operation as a move to liberate Ukrainian citizens from a neo-Nazi regime, but this pitch backfired because Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky himself is a Ukrainian Jew whose family survived the Holocaust. In the early days of the conflict, Zelensky easily won the war of perception by putting out personalised videos and successfully creating a narrative of Ukrainian resistance against an unjust invasion. This is surprising as Russia is a past master at disinformation campaigns and cyber warfare techniques. Its messaging blunders may be the result of deeper intelligence failures or a cloistered autocratic system where Putin trusts and listens to no one.
Tough Resistance
Ukrainian forces have outdone themselves in this conflict. It was always a given that they would be highly motivated in defending their homeland but their tactics have been spot on. Relying on mobile units equipped with anti-tank weaponry like the US-made Javelin missile launcher and the Turkish Bayraktar combat drone, Ukrainians have managed to halt or immobilise large Russian mechanised convoys. Plus, Ukrainian forces have been facing Russia-backed separatists in Donbass since 2014. This means they were not only cognisant of Russian military tactics but also preparing for a possible Russian invasion for the last eight years. They were receiving training from Western nations before the Russia invasion commenced.
These factors have left Russia fighting a war it can’t win without massive costs.