Abortion surges as election issue with Roe v. Wade precedent on brink

Abortion rights have suddenly emerged as an issue that could reshape the battle between Democrats and Republicans for control of Congress, following a report that conservatives on the U.S. Supreme Court are poised to strike down the half century-old Roe v. Wade precedent.

Politico reported Monday night that it had obtained the initial draft majority opinion, signed by Justice Samuel Alito, that overturns the landmark 1973 Roe ruling that made the choice to seek an abortion a constitutional right for women nationwide. Such a decision would hand Republicans a long-sought victory yet could galvanize Democrats who’ve been bracing for the prospect of losing their House and Senate majorities this November.

“This decision will put women’s rights and abortion rights front and center in the elections,” said Geoff Garin, a pollster who advises Senate Democrats. “Up until now, many voters did not take the threat to legal abortion seriously or believe that Roe would be overturned, but now the reality of that threat will be crystal clear.”

Democrats had been heading into the midterm elections hobbled by soaring inflation, the lingering coronavirus pandemic and President Joe Biden’s sagging approval ratings — all topics that Republicans have been keen to play up in their campaigns.

It’s unclear how a decision invalidating Roe would play among voters, especially in suburban House districts and the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire and Georgia where control of the Senate will be determined. It remains to be seen whether a politically seismic abortion ruling could eclipse inflation and other issues that had been central in the contest.

“Midterm elections are generally about turnout and this type of ruling could energize the base of both parties,” said Doug Sosnik, White House political director under President Bill Clinton.

Striking down Roe will reverberate in the midterm elections and the 2024 presidential campaign. It would also magnify attention on gubernatorial and legislative races around the country, as the court’s decision could return abortion rights policy to the states, where it was before Roe.

“Make no mistake: reproductive rights will be on the ballot and this midterm election is more important now than ever before,” the Democratic National Committee said in a statement on Monday night. “Voters will make their voices heard, we will fight back with everything we have, and Republicans will have to answer for their party’s relentless attacks on Americans’ rights.”

The decision is one that has been sought by many Republicans in the decades since Roe was decided. Former President Donald Trump vowed during his original campaign for the White House that he would appoint justices to overturn the ruling. In office he did just that, appointing three justices who solidified the conservative majority on the court, though it’s not clear how they voted.

The abortion issue is likely to resonate in the nation’s suburbs, which have become the linchpin of U.S. politics, as rural areas are solidly Republican and urban areas are dominated by Democrats. Democrats gained 41 seats House seats and took control of the chamber in 2018 as suburban voters turned against Trump. In 2020, Joe Biden won 54% of the suburban vote, according to the Pew Research Center, and that played a decisive role in the five states he carried by the narrowest margins.

“The House races that matter are in the suburbs,” Sosnik said.

Democrats had rallied with a massive fundraising haul in 2020 in the weeks after the death of liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. And they intend to use a decision that overturns Roe to similar effect.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a joint statement that if the Politico report is accurate, such a ruling would be “one of the worst and most damaging decisions in modern history.”

Sen. Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexico and other Democrats called for an end to the Senate’s filibuster rule, which requires 60 votes to advance most legislation, as a way to protect abortion rights. But in the 50-50 Senate, that still may not be enough to pass any abortion-related legislation.

Republicans reacted to the leak of the draft opinion as much as the substance of it.

Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri, who has urged the Supreme Court to overturn Roe in an amicus brief, said on Twitter that “the left continues its assault on the Supreme Court with an unprecedented breach of confidentiality, clearly meant to intimidate. The justices mustn’t give in to this attempt to corrupt the process.”

“Stay strong,” he added, though there’s no evidence so far of where the leak came from.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell has repeatedly refused to say whether he would allow a vote on any Biden Supreme Court pick if the GOP takes a majority in November and another vacancy occurs.

McConnell more than anyone else helped engineer the conservative majority on the verge of overturning the landmark ruling. He has pointed to blocking President Barack Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland in 2016 as among his biggest accomplishments, followed up four years later by confirming Amy Coney Barrett to replace Ginsburg shortly before the 2020 election.

McConnell in 2017 rallied Republicans to overturn the 60-vote rule to overcome filibusters of Supreme Court justices to confirm Neil Gorsuch, and later presided over the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh.

A majority of the public has consistently supported keeping abortion legal in all or at least some cases since the mid-1970s, according to Gallup data, while only about 1 in 5 Americans say the procedure should be illegal under all circumstances. Other polls show similar trends. A Marquette University poll earlier this year found that 72% of Americans oppose overturning Roe v. Wade.