The ¥22 trillion question: When will Japan reopen to foreign tourists?

More than two years since Japan closed its borders to tourists due to the pandemic, the country is counting the cost. One Kansai University professor puts the loss stemming from the lack of foreign visitors at ¥10.96 trillion in 2020 alone, suggesting that over two years it could be at least ¥22 trillion.

With that in mind, many are asking when Japan will reopen its borders to tourists.

There is growing momentum toward taking that step, with private-sector advisers to a government council urging Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration on April 27 to gradually reopen Japan’s borders to international tourists.

“To recover from the substantial decline in foreign tourists, (the government) should resume tourism entries in phases,” said the proposal from business representatives, including the chairman of Japan’s top business lobby, that was submitted to the Council of Economic and Fiscal Policy.

Adding to the sense of loss is the fact that traveling to Japan has become more affordable due to the weakening yen, but the country isn’t able to cash in due to the closed borders.

Japan’s top government spokesman has said he is aware of the rising calls to ease border restrictions.

“We are aware that cross-border travel is essential for Japanese economic activities,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said in a news conference on Thursday. “We will make appropriate decisions, taking into consideration quarantine and testing capacity (at airports), whether the virus is spreading at home and abroad, and the border and entry restrictions in other countries.”

Experts say that the decision on whether to open Japan’s borders to foreign tourists is highly political.

“Japan’s quarantine (screening at airports) is strict compared with other countries,” said Koji Wada, a professor at the International University of Health and Welfare who is also a member of the health ministry’s advisory panel. “The administration needs to make a political decision after assessing the pros and cons of opening the borders to tourists.”

With an Upper House election set to be held in July, Kishida is caught between a rock and a hard place — businesses are pressuring him to open borders, while surveys show the public is unsure about easing entry restrictions.

In an NHK poll conducted in March, 30% of respondents said Japan should not ease restrictions, while 35% said the government’s border restrictions — daily arrivals at that time had been raised to 7,000 with no tourists allowed — were “appropriate.” Only 27% said border restrictions should be relaxed even further.

Since Japan opened its borders in March to business travelers as well as foreign students and academics who have sponsors, many people overseas have been wondering when tourists will be allowed in.

But to their frustration, Japan has eased restrictions only in baby steps, with the daily arrival cap — which includes Japanese nationals and foreign residents — gradually raised from 3,500 to 5,000, then to 7,500 and now 10,000.

Conversely, other countries have fully opened their borders to foreign tourists over the past few months, especially in Europe. Britain completely lifted its COVID-19 border restrictions in March, while the U.S. has in principle allowed foreign tourists in if they are vaccinated and provide a negative virus result from a test taken before departure. Meanwhile, China is among the countries that have stuck with a strict border policy, only allowing in a handful of foreign workers and other special cases such as those attending family funerals.

Kazunobu Ouchi, an executive with academic group the Japanese Society of Travel and Health, says the difference is understandable given that Japan’s reported number of COVID-19 cases is low compared with other countries.

“It is widely considered that a pandemic calms down when more than 60% of the population has been infected with the virus,” Ouchi said.

“The figure is still low in Japan compared with other countries, so it makes sense for the borders to remain closed even though other countries have started to open their borders,” he said.

Japan has reported a total of about 7.8 million cases since the start of the pandemic, equivalent to about 7% of the population. Assuming there are twice as many unreported cases, the figure is still far lower than 60%, Ouchi said. In comparison, the U.S. has reported about 81 million cases, or equivalent to about 24% of the population.

A separate study has shown that nearly 60% of the population in the U.S. has been recently infected with the coronavirus.

According to a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report on April 26, 57.7% of the population in the U.S. was infected with the virus during the omicron wave in February, up from 33.5% in December. The figure is based on a seroprevalence study, which looks at antibodies in the blood through natural infection — not from vaccines — and can help detect infections that were asymptomatic or unreported.

A similar seroprevalence study in Japan conducted in February covering five prefectures — Tokyo, Osaka, Fukuoka, Miyagi and Aichi — showed that 4.3% of the population had antibodies, according to the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, which published the results on April 27.

Vaccinating the population is also effective, but studies have shown that the currently available vaccines, which were developed against the initial form of the coronavirus, are less effective against the omicron variant, Ouchi said.

Still, Ouchi says Japan may be able to open its borders to foreign tourists once the sixth wave has ended, possibly in mid-May.

With more countries opening their borders to tourists, Japan will likely face pressure from those countries to reciprocate, said Ouchi. “If the sixth wave has settled, it will be easier” for Japan to do so, he said.

As was the case before Japan opened its borders to foreign students and business travelers, one frustration for people who want to come to Japan is the unpredictability of the situation — not knowing when and how the decision will be made, and under what conditions.

The criteria that Kishida and other top government officials have mentioned — numbers of COVID-19 cases at home and abroad, and border restrictions in other countries — remain too vague for people to figure out.

To alleviate concerns about opening borders all at once, Japan could start by allowing visitors on package tours with tour conductors and guides, and then open up to more people in phases, Wada said.

“The important thing is for the government to show the road map,” he said. “After the basic direction is drafted, details can be hammered out by experts.”