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War in Ukraine will be over by end of year, head of military intelligence predicts
The war against Russia will reach a turning point by mid-August and be over by the end of the year, Ukraine’s head of military intelligence has told Sky News.
Major general Kyrylo Budanov said:
The breaking point will be in the second part of August.
Most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year.
As a result, we will renew Ukrainian power in all our territories that we have lost including Donbas and the Crimea.
He said Russia was suffering huge losses – although he would not be drawn on Ukrainian casualties – and said he was not surprised by their scale, given Russian power was a “myth”.
Europe sees Russia as a big threat. They are afraid of its aggression.
We have been fighting Russia for eight years and we can say that this highly publicised Russian power is a myth.
It is not as powerful as this. It is a horde of people with weapons.
Budanov said Russian forces attacking the north-eastern city of Kharkiv had been pushed back almost to the Russian border and that their much-reported failure to cross the Siverskyi Donets river several days ago had resulted in “heavy losses”.
I can confirm that they suffered heavy losses in manpower and armour and I can say that when the artillery strikes happened many of the crews abandoned their equipment.
He also claimed that Russian defeat in Ukraine would lead to the removal of Russian president Vladimir Putin and that a coup was already under way against him. “They are moving in this way and it is impossible to stop it,” he said. He provided no evidence to support the claim.
Furthermore, Putin was in a “very bad psychological and physical condition and he is very sick”. Rumours of Putin’s ill health have circulated recently but the Guardian has been unable to substantiate them.
Russian Su-27 fighter jets have taken part in drills to repel a mock air strike on Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, the Interfax news agency reports, citing the Baltic Sea fleet.
The drills took place two days after Finland announced plans to apply to join Nato, with Sweden likely to follow; moves that would bring about the expansion of the Western military alliance that Putin has said he aims to prevent.
The Russian Baltic Sea fleet’s press service said Su-27 fighter jets “destroyed” the planes of the simulated adversary during the drills, Interfax reports, adding that more than 10 crews of the Baltic Sea fleet’s Su-27 were involved in the exercises.
Foreign ministers from the G7 group of nations have vowed to reinforce Russia’s economic and political isolation, continue supplying weapons and work to ease global food shortages stemming from the war in Ukraine, Reuters reports, citing a joint statement.
We reaffirm our determination to further increase economic and political pressure on Russia, continuing to act in unity.
The war will be over by the end of the year, Ukraine claims, while a UK intelligence assessment suggests Moscow is failing to make progress towards its political objectives. And, in the battle for Ukraine’s second largest city, a US think tank believes it is Kyiv’s forces that are prevailing.
So what’s the situation on the ground right now?
Efforts at the Azovstal steelworks are now focused on evacuating about 60 people, comprising the most seriously wounded as well as medical personnel, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk has told local TV.
Reuters reports that many of those still in the plant are members of the Azov Regiment. Its deputy commander Sviatoslav Palamar has previously said his forces would continue to resist as long as they could. He told an online forum streamed on YouTube:
Our enemy, supported by planes and artillery, continues to attack. They continue their assault on our positions but we continue to repel them.
There should be consensus at Nato for Sweden and Finland to join the alliance, but their accession should also be quick, Reuters quotes the Canadian foreign minister, Mélanie Joly, as saying.
It is important that we have a consensus. We wish that there not only be an accession of Finland and Sweden, but a quick accession, which is fundamental in the circumstances as Finland and Sweden are looking for security guarantees.
Interfax quotes Grushko as saying:
It will be necessary to respond … by taking adequate precautionary measures that would ensure the viability of deterrence.
He also reiterated the Kremlin’s earlier statement that Moscow’s response to Nato’s possible expansion would depend on how close the alliance moves military assets towards Russia and what infrastructure it deploys.
Finland’s plan to apply for membership, announced on Thursday, and the expectation that Sweden will follow, would bring about the expansion of the western military alliance the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, aimed to prevent.
Russia will act if Nato deploys nuclear forces and infrastructure closer to its border, the state-run RIA news agency quotes deputy foreign minister Alexander Grushko as saying.
Grushko claims to have no hostile intentions towards Finland and Sweden and to see no “real” reasons for those two countries to join the defence alliance.
More than 700,000 people fleeing the war in Ukraine have been recorded in Germany thus far, Welt am Sonntag newspaper has reported, citing interior ministry data.
Since the start of the war on 24 February until 11 May, 727,205 people have registered in Germany’s central register of foreigners (AZR), of which 93% hold Ukrainian citizenship, Welt reported, according to Reuters. A significant number may have travelled on to other European Union countries or returned to Ukraine, it said.
Around 40% of Ukrainian refugees were minors and women make up 81% of the adult refugees registered, Welt added.
The Russian invasion has triggered a massive displacement of people, including more than 8 million Ukrainians within the country, according to the latest International Organization for Migration (IOM) report.
The number of people who have fled Ukraine has passed 6 million, in Europe’s worst refugee crisis since the end of the srcond world war, a UN refugee agency said on Thursday.
In case you’d missed it, Italy is set to host the Grand Final of the Eurovision song contest later on Saturday – and Ukraine is the favourite to win.
Kalush Orchestra, a band that blends traditional folk and hip-hop, is competing in the event with the song Stefania, which has become an anthem at home, the Guardian’s Rome correspondent Angela Giuffrida reported earlier this week.
Written by frontman Oleh Psiuk as a tribute to his mother, Stefania is also the most watched on YouTube among the 35 contenders.
But in an interview with the Italian news agency Ansa, Psiuk said his band’s entry was tipped to do well even before Russia invaded in February.
“Some people are saying we could win because of the war, but our song was among the five favourites before the start of the conflict, which means people like it regardless,” he said.
Russia has been banned from competing this year.
Read more here:
Ukraine already has 40 suspects and 11,000 cases in its war crimes investigation, prosecutor general Iryna Venediktova has said.
I am confident that in the nearest future we will see other cases being transferred to courts and perpetrators appearing before judges. We will ensure that these cases are brought to their logical end.
Her comments came after Kyiv heard its first war crimes trial since the invasion began in February.
Vadim Shysimarin, a commander of the Kantemirovskaya tank division, is accused of shooting dead an unarmed man on a bicycle, after being ordered “to kill a civilian so he would not report them to Ukrainian defenders”, according to prosecutors.
We have over 11000 ongoing cases of war crimes and already 40 suspects. I am confident that in the nearest future we will see other cases being transferred to courts and perpetrators appearing before judges. We will ensure that these cases are brought to their logical end. pic.twitter.com/xnkLC6G5vy
— Iryna Venediktova (@VenediktovaIV) May 13, 2022
War in Ukraine will be over by end of year, head of military intelligence predicts
The war against Russia will reach a turning point by mid-August and be over by the end of the year, Ukraine’s head of military intelligence has told Sky News.
Major general Kyrylo Budanov said:
The breaking point will be in the second part of August.
Most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year.
As a result, we will renew Ukrainian power in all our territories that we have lost including Donbas and the Crimea.
He said Russia was suffering huge losses – although he would not be drawn on Ukrainian casualties – and said he was not surprised by their scale, given Russian power was a “myth”.
Europe sees Russia as a big threat. They are afraid of its aggression.
We have been fighting Russia for eight years and we can say that this highly publicised Russian power is a myth.
It is not as powerful as this. It is a horde of people with weapons.
Budanov said Russian forces attacking the north-eastern city of Kharkiv had been pushed back almost to the Russian border and that their much-reported failure to cross the Siverskyi Donets river several days ago had resulted in “heavy losses”.
I can confirm that they suffered heavy losses in manpower and armour and I can say that when the artillery strikes happened many of the crews abandoned their equipment.
He also claimed that Russian defeat in Ukraine would lead to the removal of Russian president Vladimir Putin and that a coup was already under way against him. “They are moving in this way and it is impossible to stop it,” he said. He provided no evidence to support the claim.
Furthermore, Putin was in a “very bad psychological and physical condition and he is very sick”. Rumours of Putin’s ill health have circulated recently but the Guardian has been unable to substantiate them.
Russia failing to achieve political aims in Ukraine, says UK
The fact that Russia has only succeeded in imposing a pro-Russia local leadership in the city of Kherson “highlights the failure of Russia’s invasion to make progress towards its political objectives in Ukraine,” the UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) has said in its latest intelligence update.
The Russian-controlled administration in Kherson said it planned to request annexation by Moscow on Wednesday. Russia occupied Kherson in March and seized its city council building in late April. The occupation was met with protests by residents, despite violent attempts by Russian forces to disperse them.
The MoD said a central part of Russia’s original invasion plan had highly likely been to “use rigged referendums to place the majority of Ukraine’s regions under long-term pro-Russian authority.”
If Russia carries out an accession referendum in Kherson, it will almost certainly manipulate the results to show a clear majority in favour of leaving Ukraine. Citizens in the Kherson region are likely to continue to demonstrate their opposition to Russian occupation.
India is banning wheat exports in a bid to protect the country’s food security, the government has said.
The “sudden spike” in global wheat prices put the food security of India, neighbouring and other vulnerable countries at risk, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade said.
Ukraine is a major exporter of wheat and other food products. Its invasion by Russia has sparked warnings of a global food crisis.
G7 foreign and agricultural ministers are currently meeting in Germany to discuss ways of breaking Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian grain exports from ports including Odesa.
Before the war, most of the food produced by Ukraine – enough to feed 400 million people – was exported through the country’s seven Black Sea ports.
Senior Russian lawmaker Anna Kuznetsova visited the Russian-occupied region of Kherson in Ukraine to discuss social and healthcare needs of the local population, the state RIA news agency reported on Saturday according to Reuters.
There have been sparse confirmed reports of Russian senior officials visiting areas of fighting since Russia invaded its neighbour on 24 February.
Kherson is the first region set to be annexed after Moscow said in April it had gained full control of the region, which has seen sporadic anti-Russian protests.
Kuznetsova, deputy head of Russia’s Duma or lower house of parliament, discussed the supply of foodstuffs as well as medical and other products needed for children, RIA reported.
“We are here ready to provide all kinds of assistance,” Kuznetsova, the wife of an Orthodox priest and mother of seven was quoted saying.
The agency did not report when the visit took place. Reuters could not independently verify the report.
Kherson, home to a port city of the same name, provides part of the land link between the Crimean peninsula, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014, and Russian-backed separatist areas in eastern Ukraine.
The Kremlin said it was up to residents living in the region to decide whether they wanted to join Russia.
Anna Kuznetsova, deputy speaker of the 🇷🇺 State Duma, visited Russian-occupied Kherson. They do everything to establish their power in my hometown. I guess they will send there some Russians to live in empty houses as many left the region & there is almost no support of 🇷🇺 there pic.twitter.com/VraLvNfnhN
— Iuliia Mendel (@IuliiaMendel) May 14, 2022
Russian forces in the Kharkiv region have not been engaging in active combat, the Ukrainian general staff has said in its latest update on the conflict.
Their main efforts were instead “focused on ensuring the withdrawal of troops from the city of Kharkiv, maintaining occupied positions and supply routes.”
In the southern port city of Mariupol, Russia was continuing to blockade the last remaining Ukrainian forces in the Azovstal steel plant, it said, and was using “mass artillery and air strikes”.
In the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk Ukrainian forces had repelled ten Russian attacks and destroyed equipment including five tanks, five artillery systems, and six units of combat armoured equipment, the general staff said.
‘Difficult negotiations’ underway on Mariupol evacuations, Zelenskiy says
“Very difficult negotiations” are underway on the next stage of evacuations from Mariupol and the Azovstal steel plant, where the city’s last remaining Ukrainian defenders are holed up, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said in his latest nightly address.
We do not stop trying to save all our people from Mariupol and Azovstal. Currently, very difficult negotiations are underway on the next stage of the evacuation mission – the rescue of the seriously wounded, medics.
It is a large number of people. Of course, we are doing everything to evacuate everyone else, each of our defenders. Everyone in the world who can be the most influential mediator has already been involved in the relevant negotiations.
Russian forces have intensified their bombardment of steelworks, where many of the fighters are thought to be injured. Recent evacuees have described hellish conditions in the network of underground bunkers there.
Zelenskiy also warned that the war and Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s ports were “provoking a large-scale food crisis”.
Russian officials are also openly threatening the world that there will be famine in dozens of countries. And what could be the consequences of such a famine? What political instability and migration flows will this lead to? How much will you have to spend then to overcome the consequences?
These are the questions that need to be answered by those who are delaying sanctions on Russia or trying to postpone aid to Ukraine.
His warning came as G7 foreign and agriculture ministers were meeting in Germany to discuss ways of breaking the Russian blockade of grain exports.
Zelenskiy also claimed that Russia had lost almost 27,000 soldiers, “many of them young conscripts”, and that Ukraine had downed a 200th Russian military aircraft.
Russia had also “lost more than three thousand tanks, armored combat vehicles, a large number of conventional military vehicles, helicopters, drones and all its prospects as a state.”
And why all this? For a monument to Lenin to stand in the temporarily occupied Henichesk for a little longer? There is no other result for Russia and there will not be any.
The Guardian is not able to verify Ukraine’s claims regarding Russian losses and Moscow has provided very little detail.
Ukraine winning battle of Kharkiv, US think tank says
Ukraine has “likely won the battle of Kharkiv”, the country’s second largest city, the Institute for the Study of War has said in its latest assessment of the conflict.
Ukrainian forces prevented Russian troops from encircling, let alone seizing Kharkiv, and then expelled them from around the city, as they did to Russian forces attempting to seize Kyiv.
Russian units had “generally not attempted to hold ground against counterattacking Ukrainian forces over the past several days, with a few exceptions.”
Reports from Western officials and a video from an officer of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) indicate that Moscow is focused on conducting an orderly withdrawal and prioritizing getting Russians back home before allowing proxy forces to enter Russia rather than trying to hold its positions near the city.
The US-based think tank said Ukraine would now likely “attempt to disrupt ground lines of communication (GLOCs) between Belgorod [in Russia] and Russian forces concentrated around [the Russian-occupied city of] Izyum, although Russia is using several GLOCs, including some further away from current Ukrainian positions than any Ukrainian counteroffensive is likely to reach soon.”
Russian troops had “made no progress” with an attempted ground offensive from Izyum, it continued, adding: “We had previously hypothesized that Russia might give up on attempts to advance from Izyum, but the Russians have either not made such a decision or have not fully committed to it yet.”
Meanwhile, it said, the main Russian effort was aimed at encircling the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in Luhansk.
Russian troops attacking from Popasna to the north made no significant progress in the last 24 hours. Russian forces coming north-to-south have failed to cross the Siverskyi Donets River and taken devastating losses in their attempts.
The Russians may not have enough additional fresh combat power to offset those losses and continue the offensive on a large enough scale to complete the encirclement, although they will likely continue to try to do so.
Other key takeaways included:
- Russian forces have likely secured the highway near the western entrance to the Azovstal Steel Plant but fighting for the facility continues.
- Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are likely attempting to reach artillery range outside Zaporizhia City.
- Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to regain control of Snake Island off the Romanian coast or at least disrupt Russia’s ability to use it.
Welcome summary
As the time approaches 8am in Kyiv, here’s a round up of the latest developments.
- Ukraine has “likely won the battle of Kharkiv”, the country’s second largest city, the Institute for the Study of War has said in its latest assessment of the conflict. “Ukrainian forces prevented Russian troops from encircling, let alone seizing Kharkiv, and then expelled them from around the city, as they did to Russian forces attempting to seize Kyiv,” the US-based thinktank said.
- Ukrainians have also repelled multiple attempts by the Russians to cross a strategically significant river in the Donbas, inflicting heavy losses in the process, according to local officials and British intelligence. British defence intelligence said Russia had lost “significant armoured manoeuvre elements” from a battalion tactical group – a formation with about 800 personnel at full strength – from the failed effort to cross the Siversky Donets River, 12 miles (20km) west of Severodonetsk.
- Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy says “very difficult negotiations are underway” on the evacuation of the seriously wounded and medics from Mariupol and the city’s Azovstal steel plant, which Russian forces continue to bombard. “Of course, we are doing everything to evacuate everyone else, each of our defenders,” the president added.
- Russia will suspend electricity supplies to Finland from 1am on Saturday the supplier, RAO Nordic, said, amid rising tensions over Helsinki’s bid to join Nato.
- That news came as US president Joe Biden expressed his support for the right of Finland and Sweden “to decide their own future, foreign policy, and security arrangements” in a call with his Finnish counterpart, Sauli Niinistö, and Sweden’s prime minister, Magdalena Andersson.
- The White House also said it was ‘working to clarify Turkey’s position’ after president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that Turkey would not welcome either Sweden or Finland joining Nato. The comments appeared directed at the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey regards as a terrorist organisation. Sweden has a large Kurdish diaspora.
- Earlier, the Ukrainian president reiterated an offer to hold direct talks with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in the Ukrainian president’s fullest public comments on the prospect of peace talks in weeks. “I am ready to talk to Putin, but only to him. Without any of his intermediaries. And in the framework of dialogue, not ultimatums,” he told Italy’s RAI 1 television.
- A Russian soldier has appeared in court accused of murdering an unarmed man on a bicycle, at the start of the first war crime trial in Ukraine since the invasion began. Vadim Shysimarin, a commander of the Kantemirovskaya tank division, is charged with the premeditated murder of a 62-year-old man. The case is scheduled to resume on Wednesday.
- Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia will hold a referendum on joining Russia on 17 July, the region’s leader, Anatoly Bibilov, has announced. South Ossetia was at the centre of the Russian-Georgian war in 2008 after which the Kremlin recognised the territory – along with another separatist region, Abkhazia – as an independent state and stationed military bases there.
- Ukraine’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said Kyiv hopes to arm a million people as the country prepares for a “new, long phase of war”. He warned that “extremely tough weeks are ahead” and that Ukraine needed “unity, cohesion, will and patience” during this difficult period.
- The UK has issued sanctions against a dozen members of Vladimir Putin’s family and inner circle including his long-rumoured girlfriend. The Foreign Office argued that the Russian president officially owns only modest assets, and has sanctioned the people who help support his lavish lifestyle.
- The US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, spoke to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, for the first time since before the invasion began, the Pentagon said. Austin “urged an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and emphasised the importance of maintaining lines of communication”, the Pentagon press secretary, John Kirby, said.
- The EU could agree on a phased embargo on Russian oil next week, despite concerns about supply in eastern Europe, according to diplomats and officials. A senior EU diplomat told Reuters an agreement could come as early as Monday when EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels. A third diplomat said there was a chance of an agreement later in the week.
- The lawyer for the US professional basketball player Brittney Griner said her pre-trial detention has been extended by one month. The two-time Olympic medallist was arrested in February at Moscow’s airport, allegedly in possession of vape cartridges containing oil derived from cannabis. If found guilty, she could face a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison.
This is Helen Livingstone bringing you all the latest news on the war in Ukraine.
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